Publications

Russian Arctic Cities through the Prism of Permafrost
Dmitry Streletskiy and Nikolay Shiklomanov
Orttung R. (Ed.). Sustaining Russia’s Arctic Cities: Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change. Berghahn Press
2016
11/17/2016 - 13:41 link
Cities of the Russian North in the Context of Climate Change
Oleg Anisimov and Vasily Kokorev
Orttung R. (Ed.). Sustaining Russia’s Arctic Cities: Resource Politics, Migration, and Climate Change. Berghahn Press
2016
OAA&VK_07 chap Orttung.pdf
11/17/2016 - 13:47 link
CLIMATE CHANGE AND STABILITY OF URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE IN RUSSIAN PERMAFROST REGIONS: PROGNOSTIC ASSESSMENT BASED ON GCM CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
NIKOLAY I. SHIKLOMANOV, DMITRY A. STRELETSKIY, TIMOTHY B. SWALES and VASILY A. KOKOREV
Geographical Review
2016
One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost-affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate-induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid-21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM-produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities.
Shiklom_et_al_GR_2016.pdf
11/15/2016 - 16:48 link
Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts
Stef Bokhorst , Stine Højlund Pedersen, Ludovic Brucker, Oleg Anisimov, Jarle W. Bjerke, Ross D. Brown, Dorothee Ehrich, Richard L. H. Essery, Achim Heilig, Susanne Ingvander, Cecilia Johansson, Margareta Johansson, Ingibjo¨rg Svala Jo´nsdo´ttir, Niila Inga, Kari Luojus, Giovanni Macelloni, Heather Mariash, Donald McLennan, Gunhild Ninis Rosqvist, Atsushi Sato, Hannele Savela, Martin Schneebeli, Aleksandr Sokolov, Sergey A. Sokratov, Silvia Terzago, Dagrun Vikhamar-Schuler, Scott Williamson, Yubao Qiu, Terry V. Callaghan
Ambio
2016
Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region. 
Ambio_2016.pdf
11/15/2016 - 16:36 link
Challenges of the Changing Climate: A Case Study of Russia
Oleg Anisimov
RUSSIAN ANALYTICAL DIGEST
2016

Russia is facing climatic changes that are more pronounced than in many other parts of the world. While such changes have already led to environmental and socio-economical impacts, it is still debatable whether climate change should become a matter of concern for the policymakers, business society, and population in Russia, and whether development of the climate adaptation policies should be given high priority. The problem is complicated by distinct differences in recent climate changes across the country, and by the absence of societal preparedness to dedicated efforts to combat potentially detrimental consequences of the changing climate. Impacts from climate change differ by region across Russia and range from damage to infrastructure built upon thawing permafrost in the Russian North, flooding from unusually heavy rains, to potential benefits in some regions, such as reductions in the heating energy demand, better conditions for agriculture, an increase in the water resources of great Siberian rivers and a more navigable Northern sea route. However, despite key regional concerns associated with climate change, regional adaptation policies are yet to be developed.

2016_RAD185.pdf
09/27/2016 - 14:17 link
Климат в Арктической зоне России: анализ современных изменений и модельные проекции на XXI век
Анисимов О.А., Кокорев В.А.
Вестник МГУ
2016

Cравниваются данные о температуре воздуха и осадках в российской части Арктики, полученные из различных источников. Рассмотрены измерения на метеостанциях, глобальные климатические архивы в узлах регулярной пространственной сетки и результаты расчетов по гидродинамическим моделям климата. Оценивается точность каждого вида данных. Предложен метод ранжирования моделей климата на основе тестирования по данным наблюдений в Арктике за исторический период. С помощью этого метода построена оптимизированная для российской Арктики ансамблевая климатическая проекция на XXI в., объединяющая результаты высокорейтинговых моделей, и оценена ее неопределенность.

2016_Vestnik_MGU.pdf
09/27/2016 - 13:50 link
Оценка роли природно-климатических факторов в изменениях криолитозоны России
Анисимов О.А., Шерстюков А.Б.
Криосфера Земли
2016

Исследовано влияние природно-климатических факторов на современные изменения криолитозоны. Выделены три главных фактора: температура воздуха, сумма атмосферных осадков за холодный период и динамика растительности, которые оказывают влияние на состояние мерзлых пород в интервалах времени от нескольких лет до десятилетий. Получены оценки вклада температуры воздуха и осадков в изменчивость температуры грунтов. Построена эмпирико-статистическая модель, связывающая продуктивность и зональность растительности с климатическими индексами, и проведена ее валидация по спутниковым данным. Разработана и обоснована концепция моделирования современных и ожидаемых в будущем изменений многолетнемерзлых грунтов, учитывающая совместное влияние основных действующих факторов.

09/27/2016 - 13:42 link
Cities of the Russian North in the context of climate change
Oleg Anisimov, Vasily Kokorev
2013

Addressing the Arctic urban sustainability, one has to deal with the complex interplay of multiple factors, such as governance and economical development, demography and migration,environmental changes and land use, changes in the ecosystems and their services, and the climate change. While the latter can be seen as a factor that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities to other stressors, changing temperature, precipitation, snow, river and lake ice, and hydrological regime as well have direct implications for the cities in the North. Climate change leads to the reduction in the demand for heating energy, on one hand, and heightens concerns with the fate of the infrastructure built upon thawing permafrost, on the other. Changes in snowfall are particularly important and have direct implications for the urban economy, as together with the heating costs, expenses on the snow removal from streets, airport runways, roofs and ventilation corridors underneath constructions on pile foundations built upon permafrost, constitute the bulk of the city’s maintenance budget during the long cold period of the year. Many cities are located in the river valleys and are prone to floods that lead to enormous economic losses, injuries and in some cases human deaths. Severity of the northern climate has direct implication for the demography governing the regional migration and labor. Climate could thus be viewed also as an inexhaustible public resource that creates opportunities for sustainable urban development (Simpson, 2009). Long-term trends show that climate as a resource becomes more readily available in the Russian North, notwithstanding the general perception that globally, the climate change is one of the challenges facing the humanity in the 21st century. 

Urban_Sustainability.pdf
06/11/2013 - 12:42 link
Assessment Report "The Main Natural and Socioeconomic Consequences of the Climate Change in the Permafrost Areas: Forecasting Based upon Synthesis of Observations and Modelling"
Editor: Anisimov О.А., Dr. Geo., State Institute for Hydrology, St.Petersburg, Russia Team of Contributors: Anisimov О.А., Dr. Geo., State Institute for Hydrology, St.Petersburg, Russia Belolutskaya M.А., Cand. Geo., State Medical University, St.Petersburg, Russia Instanes А., Ph.D., Instanes Consulting, Bergen, Norway Kokorev V.A., St.Petersburg State University, St.Petersburg, Russia Oberman N.G., Dr. Geo. & Min., ZAO MIREKO Mining and Geology Company for Mineral Resources of the Komi Republic, Syktyvkar, Russia Reneva S.A., State Institute for Hydrology, St.Petersburg, Russia Strelchenko Y.G., St.Petersburg State University, St.Petersburg, Russia Streletsky D., University of Delaware, Newark, USA Shiklomanov N.I., Ph.D, G.Washington University, Washington, USA
2009
Report_Eng.pdf
12/22/2011 - 14:46 link
Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability
Dmitrenko, I. A., S. A. Kirillov, L. B. Tremblay, H. Kassens, O. A. Anisimov, S. A. Lavrov, S. O. Razumov, and M. N. Grigoriev
Journal of Geophysical Research
2011

Summer hydrographic data (1920–2009) show a dramatic warming of the bottom water layer over the eastern Siberian shelf coastal zone (<10 m depth), since the mid-1980s, by 2.1°C. We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open?water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deepens only by ~1 m. Thus, the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane-bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH4 supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long-lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes. A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ~70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost-related gas hydrate stability zone.

11/13/2011 - 19:18 link
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